Prisoners of Geography: Russia’s Vulnerability is Clear on a Map
Russia spans eleven time zones and shares borders with 14 countries. Despite its colossal size, it is vulnerable. Russia knows this. The West also knows this.
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Russia is vast. Immense beyond comprehension. It spans eleven time zones and shares borders with 14 countries. Despite its colossal size, it is vulnerable. Russia knows this. The West also knows this. Any enduring superpower needs easy access to waterways and oceans to facilitate the movement of trade. It also needs to be able to protect its borders. Russia’s very existence depends on geography. The stakes are very high.
Russia’s Struggle for Ocean Access
A country’s access to oceans and waterways influences the size of its economy and the security of its existence. They’re the lifeblood of any country. Their presence facilitates the transportation of goods. The feed populations. They can be mined for oil and gas. And a powerful navy will guarantee that country’s sovereignty.
Russia is almost completely landlocked. What access it has to oceans and waterways is blocked by other countries. “During the Cold War, air bases in Norway, Scotland, and Iceland, coupled with carrier battle groups, worked to deny the Soviet Union access to the sea”. This stranglehold cost the USSR. The West had the upper hand when it came to the negotiating table. Even today, Russia has just three ways of accessing the global maritime trade.
1. Through the Black Sea - Russia has several ports on the Black Sea. Seaside cities like Sochi and Novorossiysk. And since 2014, five ports in Crimea. These are Russia's only true major warm-water ports. But, leaving the Black Sea is difficult. The Black Sea is connected to the Mediterranean by The Bosporus, a narrow waterway controlled by Turkey - now a NATO member. It’s a choke point, and can easily be closed to all Russian military traffic - something Turkey has already done in recent weeks.
2. Through the Baltic Sea - The Skagerrak Strait connects the Baltic Sea to The North Sea. The narrow strait is controlled by NATO members Denmark and Norway.
3. Through the Arctic Ocean - Far from Russia’s major population centres is The Arctic Ocean. The few ports that do exist are unusable in the winter. Vladivostok is the largest. It sits on the Pacific Ocean and is ice-locked for about four months out of the year. It’s also enclosed by the Sea of Japan, which is dominated by the Japanese. “This does not just halt the flow of trade; it prevents the Russian fleet from operating as a global power.”
The European Plain: Russia’s Achilles’ Heel
70% of Russia’s population lives to the West of the Ural mountains. They live in cities which sit close to Russia’s western border with Europe, and clustered along its southern border with the Caucuses - an area which makes up just 20% of Russia’s entire territory.
To the East are the Ural mountains, a natural barrier where the remaining 30% of Russia’s population live. They’re spread across the North and Siberia, an area which represents almost 80% of Russia’s total size, and is known for its harsh climate and relative inaccessibility.
Because the area to the West of the Ural mountains is flat, Russia is vulnerable and difficult to defend. There are few natural barriers in the North European Plain to prevent an army attacking from the west. Any European power could easily march an army across this flat area directly into Moscow. And it’s happened before. Napoleon, Hitler, and even Finland have tried.
Buffer States and Military Force: Russia’s Response
Russia’s strategy has been to maintain control, militarily or by intervening in the politics of its neighbouring countries - creating a buffer zone of sorts. Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has welcomed the Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania into their ranks, bringing St. Petersburg within a hundred miles of a NATO country.
And there was nothing that the Russians could do. They’ve instead focused their efforts on building an alliance with Belarus’ authoritarian leader, redrawing their border with Georgia, stabilising the situation in Chechnya by installing their own loyal leader, annexing Crimea, and by starting a war in Ukraine. Russia is vulnerable. Because of Russia’s vulnerability, it uses aggression on the global stage.
